How many guests won't show up? Estimating no-shows, and getting fewer
You'll see no-show percentages quoted everywhere, rarely with a source. The truth is it depends on your event and your guests. Here's how to estimate no-shows from your own replies, and how to have fewer.
Is there a standard percentage of guests who don't come?
No, there's no reliable figure that works for every event. No-shows vary with distance, date, travel cost, guests' ages and how close you are to them.
Rather than applying a percentage read somewhere, start from what you know: the replies you've had, the maybes and what you've seen at your previous events.
How do you estimate attendance from the replies?
Count yeses as coming, nos as not, and treat maybes and non-replies separately. That's where all the uncertainty is.
- Yeses: the base of your count
- Maybes: nudge them before the deadline to get a firm answer
- No reply after nudging: usually count them as not coming
- Plus-ones: add them to the yeses; your dashboard totals them
- A margin based on experience: a bit more food, not a bigger venue
Why do some guests say yes and then don't turn up?
Usually something comes up, or the reply was given quickly, long in advance. An invitation sent far ahead with no reminder leaves time for diaries to fill.
An invitation that updates and a reminder the day before help: guests have the details in front of them, and can change their reply in one tap if they can't make it, rather than saying nothing.
How do you reduce no-shows?
Make replying easy, ask for it by a clear date, and remind people at the right time. Each step removes some uncertainty.
- Send the invitation at the right time, not too early or late (see when to send invitations)
- Set a visible RSVP deadline
- Allow "maybe", then follow up with those who chose it
- Nudge non-repliers privately (see chasing RSVPs)
- Send a practical message the day before: address, time, door code
- Let guests change their reply easily
How do you manage a waiting list?
Keep a B list of people to invite if nos come in early. It's common for weddings and dinners with limited seats.
With an online invitation, you see nos as they arrive and can invite the next person straight away. The method is in the wedding guest list template, and tracking in managing RSVPs online.
What number should you give the caterer or venue?
The confirmed yeses and plus-ones at the deadline, possibly with a small margin. Ask the caterer how late you can adjust the number, and set your RSVP deadline just before that.
With the Invitotte+ Excel/CSV export, you can send the caterer the list with answers to your questions (meal choices, allergies), so nothing gets copied by hand.
Do no-shows differ by type of event?
Often, though there's no reliable figure: it depends on what it costs guests to come. A free, casual party nearby is easy to skip at the last minute; a wedding guests have travelled for is not.
Use that to decide how hard to chase: for a casual party, one nudge is enough; for a seated dinner, call anyone who hasn't confirmed. Seated events are also where a firm deadline matters most.
Frequently asked questions
Should I invite more people to make up for no-shows?
Only carefully, ideally through a B list invited as nos come in. Over-inviting on the assumption of no-shows can leave you with too many people.
Doesn't "maybe" encourage people not to decide?
It tells you more than silence. Follow up with the maybes before the deadline to get a firm answer.
How much food should I plan?
For confirmed yeses and plus-ones, with a small margin based on your experience. Allergy questions avoid nasty surprises.
Can a guest cancel online?
Yes, they change their reply with the same link, and your dashboard updates.